With the disintegration of Soviet Union, the U.S. emerged as a sole superpower in the global arena and maintained its authority over the world for more than two decades. The U.S., after 1991, was able to meddle with policies of majority of the states and give direction to the emerging alliances and/or blocs.

However, with the induction of technology leading to globalization the unipolar world became gradually multipolar. The multipolar nature of the world came forth as a result of rise of countries like China, Japan, Germany, Brazil, India and others trying to evoke their respective policies and increase their area of influence in the new world order.

Dynamic of the Complex Triangular Relationship:

The rise of China as an economic power cemented its position globally, with a prediction that China will become the world largest economy by 2041 while India will be running up on the third place in this regard after the U.S. The U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) considers the emergence of India and China as a vital transformation in the geopolitical landscape that will bring up new alignments and change the dynamics of strategic flux, globally. According to the U.S. NIC, China’s rise is motivated by its desire to become the only superpower of the world while India is likely to make every effort for a multipolar international system as it seeks to strengthen its bond with the U.S. for acting a “political and cultural bridge” between China and the U.S.(Ganguly and Pardesi 2010)

On the other hand, when it comes to competing with China, the U.S. has never directly tried to engage with China. This is due to China’s colossal rise in strategic as well as economic sector. According to the United States Census Bureau, the bilateral goods and services trade between China and the U.S. stood at an estimated $648.5 billion in 2016. China shipped US$2.272 trillion worth of products around the globe in 2017. While the U.S. shipped US$1.547 trillion worth of goods around the globe in 2017. (Outlook 2018)

Similarly, for India, China remains the biggest strategic adversary. Both the states have fought a full-fledged war with each other over a border conflict in 1962 which is known as ‘Sino-Indian War’. The border clashes occurred over the road link connecting Aksai China to Tibet region. In the war, collectively about 2100 soldiers died with about 1400 from the Indian while 700 from the Chinese side. Chinese position was strengthened after the end of the war. (Pletcher 2013)

The war has never affected the trade relations between China and India, though. The bilateral trade between China & India, as of 2017, touched $71.5 billion mark. Both the countries are also seeking to develop common grounds to achieve a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as early as possible. The opening of Sikkim trade/transit route, in June 2003, also served as a welcoming gesture in stabilizing the heated environment between the two states. (Venkatachalam 2017) (Singh 2005)

The converging grounds for China and India remain very scarce while that of India and the U.S. are high. From competing with China, economically and strategically to containing its political influence all pile up harmonious conditions for India and the U.S. to unite and support each other in the cause. The U.S. has always remained skeptical of China and Russia when it comes to their peaceful rise. Also, issues like the status of Taiwan, China’s rapid military modernization, trade imbalances and human rights issues in Syria beset the U.S.-China relationship. Correspondingly, Sino-Pakistan strategic partnership, China’s relationship with India’s South Asia neighbors, Chinese support to Pakistan on Kashmir cause as well as the Sino-Myanmar relations prompt disagreement in the Sino-Indian relationship. (Ganguly and Pardesi 2010)

One of the most distressing aspects for China is the membership of India in the U.S.-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad, an informal security dialogue between the four liberal democracies in the Indo-Pacific region. The budding alliance is arrayed to counter China’s expanding growth, both economically & strategically. Quad also includes Australia and Japan; for the sake of countering China in Southeast Asia, notably the South China Sea. (Khan 2018)

Conclusion:

The U.S. does not want a single power to dominate resource-rich region like Asia for which it adopts a give and take policy. For this, the U.S. has to collaborate with China on some aspects while support India on the other. The U.S. has remained the sole dominating power for more than two decades and still wants to be able to meddle with regional affairs; through another state, if not directly. India is playing a vital role in laying cards for the U.S. It is not only providing services to the U.S. but is also getting benefits out of it in which the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal and the Indo-U.S. strategic partnership is of prime importance.

Both India and China are pursuing robust efforts in reaching out to their immediate as well as regional neighbors for the sake of maximizing their power. Russian interest in joining One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative has given a profound support to the Chinese stance with Turkey in east Europe willing to become part of it. India has also accelerated its engagements by procuring Iranian Chabbahar port’s comprehensive access along with firm footing in Afghanistan.

These dramatic paradigm shifts are giving rise to new alliances/blocs. Naturally, a division of power or inter-dependence of power can be seen which turns out to be a multipolar world, the predicted new world order. South Asia and Central Asia are rapidly becoming the nucleus of attention by major world powers as each of them tries to glue itself in the region. In near future, it does not seem that India and China can develop a common ground for close cooperation thoroughly because of the complexities of region and involvement of intra-regional players.

Bibliography

Ganguly, Sumit, and Manjeet S Pardesi. 2010. "The Evolving US-China-India Triangular Relationship." Centre for Land Warfare Studies 65-78.

Khan, Sarmad Ali. 2018. Economy & Finance: The Emerging Super-Power Troika. May 3. Accessed July 15, 2018. https://www.melangemagazine.biz/the-emerging-super-power-troika/.

Outlook, World Economic. 2018. Publications: World Economic Outlook. January 4. Accessed July 15, 2018. http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm.

Pletcher, Kenneth. 2013. Place: Aksai Chin. January 31. Accessed July 15, 2018. https://www.britannica.com/place/Aksai-Chin#ref1172096.

Singh, Swaran. 2005. China-India Bilateral Trade: Strong Fundamentals, Bright Future. Research Paper, Hong Kong: French Centre for Research on Contemporary China - China Perspectives.

Venkatachalam, K.S. 2017. The Pulse: How to Fix India-China Trade. August 31. Accessed July 16, 2018. https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/how-to-fix-india-china-trade/.